 D. J. Thompson

D. J. Thompson coauthored the 1952 general treatment of sampling without replacement from a finite population with unequal selection probabilities. The paper with D. G. Horvitz is the source of the Horvitz-Thompson estimator.^[ref]

The contribution separates unbiased total estimation from assumptions of independent selection. If $I_i$ is an inclusion indicator, then $\mathbb{E}{I}_i={\pi }_i$, while pair products satisfy $\mathbb{E}(I_i{I}_j)={\pi }_{ij}$. Consequently, for fixed population values,This identity makes joint inclusion probabilities essential to a variance calculation, even though the expectation of the total estimate only needs the individual inclusion probabilities.

For an illustrative population $(1,1)$, sample one unit uniformly. Each selected value is multiplied by $2$, so the total estimate is always $2$ and its variance is zero. The individual random contributions are nevertheless variable: their covariance cancels their variances because they cannot both be selected. Ignoring that sampling dependence would give the wrong precision. The example shows why design-based estimation concerns the whole selection mechanism, not just a set of multipliers.