 Effective repetition count for detector intervals with shared drift

The effective repetition count for detector intervals with shared drift is the number of independent repetitions that would give the same variance for an average indicator as the actual dependent repetitions. In overdispersion of detector-interval counts under shared drift, let $X_i$ indicate an empty interval, with common probability $\overline{p}$ satisfying $0<\overline{p}<1$. If the covariance between distinct indicators is $v=\mathrm{Var}(p(H))$, their correlation coefficient isThe parent's law of total variance calculation therefore givesThis is an observable-specific variance equivalence, not a literal count of independent traces or a guarantee of confidence interval coverage. A different statistic or a different dependence pattern may require a different equivalence.

For an original feasible mixture, take $\overline{p}=0.1$ and $\rho =0.1$. These moments can arise when the block probability is $0$ with probability $9/19$ and $0.19$ with probability $10/19$: its variance is $0.009$. With $N=50$, the variance-inflation multiplier is $5.9$ andDoubling the repetitions to $100$ only raises $N_{\mathrm{eff}}$ to about $9.17$. For a fixed positive $\rho$, its large-$N$ limit is $1/\rho$, here $10$.

The experiment must therefore record which traces share a reference or drift state. Acquiring genuinely independent calibration blocks addresses a different limitation from oversampling one block; effective repetition count across independent calibration blocks depends on that grouping. A cluster bootstrap can preserve the observed within-block dependence when blocks are suitable independent resampling units. NIST's uncertainty law explicitly retains shared-input covariance, supporting the need to model reference reuse rather than discard it.^[ref]