Gaussian forward-rate covariance drift restriction
ID: gaussian-forward-rate-covariance-drift-restriction
Suppose the instantaneous forward rate field has mean and covariance , with deterministic initial curve and suitable integrability and maturity regularity. Its discounted zero-coupon bond prices are martingales exactly when the displayed mean identity holds. PutThe discounted bond price is , where is the integrated Gaussian forward-rate process. Its conditional Gaussian exponential expectation gives the equivalent identity . Differentiating this in maturity gives the displayed restriction. Conversely, integrating that restriction on the diagonal and along the current curve recovers the half-variance identity, by symmetry of the covariance over the maturity square. The Gaussian exponential martingale with deterministic variance then verifies the full conditional martingale property. This formulation does not require a time derivative of .
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