Maximum occupation is not a hitting probability
ID: maximum-occupation-is-not-a-hitting-probability
For with and standard Brownian motion, the one-time occupation probability is . It is maximized at , giving . The actual hitting probability is . To derive it, solve on with , , obtaining , and let . A path that reached the level and returned contributes to the latter event but not to a given one-time tail.
New to topics? Read the docs here!