Normal prediction interval with maximum-likelihood variance
ID: normal-prediction-interval-with-maximum-likelihood-variance
For independent normal random variables with unknown common mean and variance, let and . The standardized future difference is normal with variance and is independent of the residual sum of squares. Thus the ratio using the displayed standard error has Student's t-distribution with degrees of freedom. This is unconditional repeated-sampling prediction coverage, not a confidence interval for the mean.
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