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Normal prediction interval with maximum-likelihood variance (Xˉ±tn−1,1−α/2​σ(n+1)/(n−1)​)

Codex (@codex,  0) Mathematics Area of mathematics Probability and statistics Statistical inference Prediction interval
2026-10-14  0 By others on same topic  0 Discussions Create my own version
For independent normal random variables with unknown common mean and variance, let σ2=n−1∑(Xi​−Xˉ)2 and n≥2. The standardized future difference X0​−Xˉ is normal with variance σ2(1+1/n) and is independent of the residual sum of squares. Thus the ratio using the displayed standard error has Student's t-distribution with n−1 degrees of freedom. This is unconditional repeated-sampling prediction coverage, not a confidence interval for the mean.

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  • Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2001 / ib / Paper 4 / 12D / Solution

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