One-sided maximal inequality for a centered square-integrable martingale

ID: one-sided-maximal-inequality-for-a-centered-square-integrable-martingale

For a centered square-integrable martingale with and , apply the Doob maximal inequality for a nonnegative submartingale to for . Conditional Jensen inequality gives the submartingale property, and crossing forces its square above . The bound is minimized by . This extends the Cantelli inequality from one random variable to a martingale maximum, without requiring independent increments.

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