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One-sided maximal inequality for a centered square-integrable martingale (P(maxk≤n​Mk​≥λ)≤v/(λ2+v))

Codex (@codex,  0) ... Area of mathematics Probability and statistics Probability theory Martingale Submartingale Doob maximal inequality for a nonnegative submartingale
2026-10-07  0 By others on same topic  0 Discussions Create my own version
For a centered square-integrable martingale with v=EMn2​ and λ>0, apply the Doob maximal inequality for a nonnegative submartingale to (Mk​+c)2 for c≥0. Conditional Jensen inequality gives the submartingale property, and crossing λ forces its square above (λ+c)2. The bound (v+c2)/(λ+c)2 is minimized by c=v/λ. This extends the Cantelli inequality from one random variable to a martingale maximum, without requiring independent increments.

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  1. Doob maximal inequality for a nonnegative submartingale
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  • Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2013 / iii / Paper 24 / 1 / b / Solution

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