Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2002/ia/paper-2/9f/a/solution

For , the conditional probability is . Since the events partition the sample space, their intersections with are disjoint and exhaust . The law of total probability therefore gives . Substituting this and into the definition proves Bayes' theorem:
The denominator is positive by the given hypothesis on .

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