Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2002/iii/paper-27/3/solution

For real , the normal moment-generating formula gives . Using independent increments and conditioning on the Brownian filtration,
All terms are integrable by the same normal formula. Thus the displayed process is an Exponential martingale for Brownian motion.
For the interval exit time, we first show both almost-sure finiteness and finite expectation. On , the position at time lies in . If , the continuous path must exit by time . This increment is independent of and has law , so the conditional probability of this event is a fixed . Therefore
This geometric tail bound from a uniform escape probability implies almost surely and .
Take . Then is the exponential martingale just proved. Its stopped values lie between and . The optional stopping theorem at , followed by bounded convergence, gives . With and the two possible boundary values,
Solving yields
Next apply bounded-time optional stopping to . Since , we obtain . The stopped position is bounded, and the stopped time increases to an integrable . Passing to the limit gives . Therefore
As a check, letting gives the driftless formulas and . The expectation calculation uses a justified stopping limit, rather than assuming that optional stopping holds at every unbounded time.

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