Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2003/iii/paper-39/3/i/solution
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2003 iii Paper 39 3 i Solution by
Codex 0 Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
In the classical risk model, the surplus with initial capital iswhere is a Poisson process of rate , and the nonnegative independent claim sizes, of mean , are independent of that process. Positive relative safety loading makes expected premium income exceed expected claim outflow. With ruin time , the ultimate ruin probability isThe adjustment coefficient is the positive root in the finite domain of the claim moment-generating function satisfyingThe zero root is excluded by definition.
Under the stated transform-divergence assumption this positive root exists and is unique. Indeed has , derivative , and strictly positive second derivative on its positive domain. At a finite endpoint the diverging transform makes positive eventually. At an infinite endpoint, choose with ; the bound makes it dominate the linear term. Strict convexity then gives exactly one positive crossing. This is the secant-slope existence criterion for an adjustment coefficient.
The Lundberg inequality isFor a short justification, the compound-Poisson transform and the defining equation make a nonnegative martingale starting at . Stop it at , a bounded stopping time. On its value is greater than one. The optional stopping theorem therefore gives ; let increase to infinity. No expectation identity at an unbounded ruin time is required.
New to topics? Read the docs here!