Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2003/iii/paper-40/4/b/solution

Use a conventional two-sided test at significance level . Let per arm, , and . Under the specified alternative, the normal approximation to the difference of independent binomial proportions has standard deviation
For planning the pooled null standard error, use , giving . The rejection threshold is approximately , exceeding the mean alternative difference. With the standard normal distribution function, the approximate statistical power is
No: the usual two-sided 5% calculation gives about 45% power, below 50%. The expected death counts are only 20 and 10, so an exact discrete design calculation could refine this approximation.
The question does not specify the tail convention. If a beneficial direction is prespecified and a one-sided test at 5% is justified, replace by approximately ; the resulting statistical power is about , and the answer is then yes. This change of testing convention must be declared.

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