Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2005/ib/paper-1/7d/solution

Under the null hypothesis of equal population probabilities, the three counts have a multinomial distribution with probabilities and expected counts each. The Pearson chi-squared goodness-of-fit test uses
No probabilities have been estimated from the data, and the three counts sum to a fixed total. Hence the null reference chi-squared distribution has statistical degrees of freedom. The supplied upper critical value is , and . At the 5% significance level there is insufficient evidence to reject equal popularity.
The asymptotic P-value is . The expected counts are all large, so the approximation is appropriate if the sampled choices are independent and representative of this branch. The conclusion depends on the chosen significance level; for instance, a test would reject. Nonrejection does not establish the null hypothesis, and a survey at one branch does not by itself justify a population claim about every branch.

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