Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2007/iii/paper-41/1/solution
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2007 iii Paper 41 1 Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-14
We prove the positive state-price density alternative using finite-dimensional convex cones. Put and defineAll displayed expectations are finite, since . The set is a convex cone, so is a closed convex cone. A vector is nonnegative on exactly when almost surely. Indeed, one direction follows by taking every nonnegative bounded test weight ; for the other direction, if on a set of positive probability, take its indicator as to obtain a strictly negative expectation. This also identifies as the closed cone generated by the support of a probability distribution of .
The three cases , , and are treated below. They give respectively a negative-cost separating portfolio, a supporting zero-cost portfolio with a strictly positive payoff on an event of positive probability, or the required positive pricing weight. Thus the alternatives are exhaustive.
They are mutually exclusive. If with and a portfolio has nonnegative payoff, then . A negative initial cost is impossible. If the payoff is strictly positive with positive probability, this expectation is strictly positive, so nonpositive initial cost is impossible too. The given weighted integrability permits taking the expectation of this scalar product.
In a one-period market, is the portfolio's initial cost and its terminal value. The first two cases are investment-consumption arbitrage: nonnegative wealth can be taken out at both dates, with a strict benefit at one of them. If a strictly positive bank account is traded, any negative initial cost can be invested in it, converting the opportunity into a zero-cost arbitrage with nonnegative terminal payoff and positive payoff with positive probability.
In the third case, is a strictly positive state-price density. If a traded numéraire has price and terminal value , its pricing identity is . ConsequentlyThe density has mean one and is strictly positive, so is equivalent to the physical measure. Thus discounted asset prices are martingales in the one-period sense. This is the fundamental theorem of asset pricing formulation of absence of arbitrage; normalization to a probability measure uses the positive traded numéraire, not an unsupported assumption that .
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