Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2008/ia/paper-2/9f/solution

Let be the offspring probability generating function, and let , for . Given , the next generation is a sum of independent offspring counts. Multiplication of their probability generating functions gives
Taking conditional expectation and then averaging proves
Thus is the -fold composition of with itself. Induction makes this precise: it is true for , and composing once more gives the next generation. In particular , since both are the same iterated function. This is the generating-function recursion for a Galton-Watson process.
Write , initially assuming it is finite. The law of total expectation gives
Starting at one therefore yields , with the value at understood to be one even if . Equivalently, differentiating the composition at one gives the same recurrence. If the offspring expectation is infinite, every positive generation has infinite expectation: a positive chance of at least one parent remains at each finite generation, and conditional on any positive parent count the next expected count is infinite.
For a Poisson branching process, . Extinction is absorbing because an empty generation has no parents, so extinction by generation is precisely . Hence . Using the composition in the order gives
For example is the chance of no offspring in the first generation. The recurrence includes the degenerate case , where extinction occurs in the first generation with certainty.

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