Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2009/iii/paper-40/5/b/solution

At , complete the square:
For fixed , all factors not involving enter its conditional normalizing constant. Interchanging the roles of the coordinates gives
These are the full conditional distributions of the standard bivariate normal distribution with correlation .
A systematic Gibbs sampler starts at a chosen and, at each sweep, draws independent standard normals and sets
The second update uses the newly drawn . Both coordinate updates preserve the target by part (a), hence so does the sweep. The Gaussian two-coordinate Gibbs recursion is explicitly
an AR(1) recursion with innovation variance . Its stationary variance is one, and its correlation at sweep lag is , displaying the dependence of the sample.
The printed general- expression has a separate normalization defect: for its integral is , not one, since the exponent has covariance , whose normalizing denominator is . Retaining that exponent requires in the prefactor. The requested target is already normalized, so this defect does not alter the conditional distributions above.

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