 Solution

For a series with constant mean $\mu$, write $X_t=x_t-\mu$. An autoregressive moving-average process has the formwhere $w_t$ is zero-mean white noise with variance ${\sigma }_w^2>0$. The backshift operator is $B{X}_t=X_{t-1}$. Define the autoregressive polynomial and the moving-average polynomial byThe autoregressive operator and moving-average operator give the concise equationOrders are normally specified minimally, with nonzero last coefficients and no common polynomial factor. A displayed unreduced equation can have larger orders than the process actually needs.

Causality means that the stationary process can be recovered from present and past noise:Invertibility means that the noise can be recovered from present and past observations:The causality and invertibility root criteria for an ARMA model, for the reduced representation, areIndeed the transfer series are $\sum {\psi }_j{z}^j=\Theta (z)/\Phi (z)$ and $\sum {\pi }_j{z}^j=\Phi (z)/\Theta (z)$. When all denominator roots lie outside the closed unit disc, each rational function is analytic on a larger disc, so its Taylor coefficients decay geometrically and are absolutely summable. Conversely, a genuine denominator zero in the closed unit disc gives a pole incompatible with such a convergent filter. The reduced-representation proviso prevents a cancelled root from being mistaken for an obstruction.

For order identification by autocorrelation cutoffs, first estimate the sample autocorrelation function and sample partial autocorrelation function from a suitably stationary, centred series. The autocorrelation function is $\rho (h)=\mathrm{Cov}(X_t,X_{t-h})/\mathrm{Var}(X_t)$. The lag-$h$ partial autocorrelation function is the last coefficient in the best linear regression of $X_t$ on $X_{t-1},\dots ,X_{t-h}$, equivalently the correlation left after removing the intervening lags.

For a pure moving-average model of order $q$, observations more than $q$ lags apart share no noise, so the population ACF is zero beyond $q$, while the PACF usually tails off. For a pure autoregressive model of order $p$, the PACF is zero beyond $p$, while the ACF usually decays, possibly with damped oscillation. Thus a clear sample ACF cutoff suggests an MA order and a clear PACF cutoff suggests an AR order. For a mixed ARMA process both usually tail off, so these plots guide a small set of candidate orders rather than determine $p,q$ uniquely. Sampling variation blurs cutoffs; compare fitted candidates and check that their residual ACF resembles white noise. Common-factor cancellation can also disguise the orders in a displayed equation.