Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2010/iii/paper-36/1/d/solution

Under the null hypothesis, , with expected value and variance . Approximating its probability at an integer by the normal distribution density over a unit-width cell gives
Dividing by the prior predictive distribution from the preceding part gives the uniform-alternative binomial Bayes factor
The second approximation replaces by . Both are large-sample approximations for counts in the central range, rather than exact identities at extreme counts.

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