Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2010/iii/paper-38/1/b/solution

The original PDF specifies a geometric distribution on , with probabilities . Its probability generating function is . By independence, the total original claim count has
The coefficient follows from the negative binomial series. Thus one representation uses independent unit-rate exponential distribution steps and a negative binomial distribution count .
There is a second useful random sum of independent claims representation. For one policy, the random-sum transform identity gives
This is the mixture distribution of zero with probability and a rate- exponential distribution with probability . Consequently
with the binomial distribution count independent of the independent steps. Equality follows by multiplying the moment-generating functions. This is a negative-binomial sum of exponential claims.
When , the three values of give
Thus the zero mass is , and the conditional positive probability density function is
Its integral is . Equivalently the positive-component cumulative distribution function is
so . For , .

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