Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2014/iii/paper-26/3/2/solution

For , write for the standard normal distribution function. Since the Brownian running maximum is nonnegative, gives simply .
For and , reflect the Brownian motion after its first hit of . This is a stopping time, and the Strong Markov property together with symmetry of Brownian increments shows that reflection preserves its law. On paths that hit , it sends the endpoint to . Thus the event with endpoint at most maps to endpoints at least , all of which necessarily hit . This proves
The same reflection gives . If , every path with has hit , so subtracting that endpoint tail gives the complete answer:
The expressions agree at . This is the joint distribution of Brownian motion and its running maximum. In particular has the distribution of and has no atoms for . If , the pair is deterministically, so the requested probability is .

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