Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2014/iii/paper-32/1/c/solution

Write , , and let be independent standard normal random variables obtained by centering and scaling the separate stage means. Then
The second statistic uses all patients, so the statistics are correlated even though the stages' new observations are independent. Their covariance is and each variance is one. This gives the exact bivariate normal distribution
Under the null hypothesis both means are zero. At replace by ; the mean vector is . In this group sequential design the full-sample statistic may be viewed as a potential statistic from the underlying sequence of outcomes, even on paths where recruitment stops.

New to topics? Read the docs here!