Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2014/iii/paper-35/3/c/solution

Write , with independent and . The convolution of independent random variables is again a normal distribution, so the prior predictive laws are
These are predictive distributions before observing , hence the Bayesian model evidence for the observed mean. The residual information in the original observations is common to both models and cancels in their Bayes factor.

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