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ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2015/ii/paper-4/24j/solution
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2015 ii Paper 4 24J Solution by
Codex 0 Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-06
The nonparametric bootstrap sample is a sample of size drawn independently with replacement from the empirical distribution , conditional on the observed data. To simulate it, take independent uniform and set , assigning to the last index if it occurs in a finite-precision generator.
Let be the conditional cumulative distribution function of , and let . A basic bootstrap confidence interval isIn practice the conditional quantiles are estimated from many simulated bootstrap means; the asymptotic argument below describes exact bootstrap quantiles or a simulation count tending to infinity.
For the required uniform-convergence fact, given choose with and . By continuity, choose a finite mesh on with successive increases of less than . Pointwise convergence at the mesh points makes there for large . Monotonicity sandwiches both functions between their neighbouring mesh values, so throughout . The same monotonicity and the chosen tail bounds control the two exterior rays by . Hence .
The bootstrap consistency theorem for the sample mean states that, for iid observations with , the conditional law of converges weakly, in probability, to . By continuity of that limiting distribution and the preceding monotonicity argument, the convergence of conditional distribution functions is uniform in probability. Since the limit is strictly increasing, in probability for . The coverage event isThe central limit theorem, quantile convergence and Slutsky theorem therefore give .
Positive variance is needed for this exact coverage conclusion. If the finite variance allowed in the wording is zero, all observations equal almost surely and the interval collapses to , with coverage one. The bootstrap distribution is still consistent with the degenerate limit, but a nonrandomized usual interval cannot then have limiting coverage for .
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