Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2015/iii/paper-29/5/ii/solution

Let independent Bernoulli random variables have success probabilities , for , and use their natural filtration. Define
Each increment is integrable, finite, and independent of the previous filtration, with expectation
Thus is a martingale. The increments have no common finite bound, since a success produces a jump of size .
Since , the First Borel-Cantelli lemma says that only finitely many successes occur almost surely. Consequently
for all sufficiently large , with the random sum finite almost surely. Therefore almost surely, so neither finite convergence nor two-sided oscillation occurs. This rare-jump martingale divergence example gives probability zero, rather than one, for the union in (i).

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