Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2015/iii/paper-37/3/a/solution

For a centered weakly stationary process with , the autocorrelation function is
For , let be orthogonal projection in L2 space onto the linear span of . The lag- partial autocorrelation function is the correlation coefficient of and . It removes the linear contribution of the intervening observations. At lag one it is just . For nonsingular prediction covariance matrices, it is equivalently the last coefficient in the order- linear predictor of from . Equal residual variances, by stationarity, identify that coefficient with the residual correlation. If a residual has zero variance, this correlation is undefined; the nondegeneracy condition matters.

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