Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2017/ii/paper-1/27k/c/solution

Write . The embedded birth-death chain moves upward with probability and downward with probability away from zero. The gambler's ruin formula, obtained by solving its two-point difference equation on and then letting , gives . Translation gives return probability from to . From the chain hits almost surely: before that hit it remains in a finite reflecting interval, from every state of which a uniformly positive finite-step chance of hitting is available. This also proves that starting at zero it hits each almost surely.
After departure from the return probability is therefore
The holding rate is , so the exponential occupation-time parameter is . Applying the Strong Markov property at the almost-sure first hit gives
At zero the holding rate is and return probability after departure is , again giving parameter . From initial state , the expected occupation time at zero is , since the time is zero unless zero is reached. Averaging over the initial law with probability generating function yields
For , the interpretation is , for , and ; the same formulas hold.

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