Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2017/iii/paper-206/1/b/solution

For fixed known , take the natural parameter of an exponential family
The negative binomial distribution has log-likelihood
Thus this is a negative binomial exponential family, with dispersion parameter in the convention of part (a). The carrier contains the Gamma function and depends on the fixed size , which need not be an integer. Differentiating the cumulant function of an exponential family gives
Therefore
The size controls overdispersion relative to a Poisson distribution; it is different from the unit dispersion parameter used by this fixed-size generalized linear model. Another common convention applies to the scaled response : then and . Keeping track of the response scale prevents confusing these two representations. At the law is concentrated at zero and is obtained as a boundary limit, rather than by a finite natural parameter of an exponential family.

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