Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2018/iii/paper-207/4/c/iv/solution

At an added potential event time with no event and a nonempty risk set, , so maximum likelihood estimation gives . Its factor in the Kaplan–Meier estimator is therefore .
Adding or deleting such times also leaves the risk sets at actual event times unchanged: those depend on the observed event and censoring histories. Consequently the fitted survivor function depends only on observed event times and their risk sets. Beyond the last observed follow-up, the tail is not identified; the standard flat continuation is a convention, rather than an additional consequence of likelihood maximization.

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