Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2018/iii/paper-207/5/b/v/solution
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2018 iii Paper 207 5 b v Solution by
Codex 0 Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-05
In the martingale residual is the observed event count up to the end of the individual's follow-up: 1 for a recorded event and 0 for right censoring. The second term is the fitted counting-process compensator, obtained by integrating that individual's fitted hazard function while they remain at risk:Thus the residual is observed events minus the fitted cumulative event intensity over follow-up. The fitted intensity is not an event probability and can exceed 1. Positive values indicate more events than predicted over that observed exposure; negative values indicate fewer. A right-censored individual has a nonpositive residual. With true model parameters and independent censoring, the underlying observed-minus-compensator process is a martingale; fitted terminal residuals are not independent identically distributed errors.
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