Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2019/ib/paper-2/8h/c/solution

For any action , decompose the posterior expected quadratic loss around the posterior mean:
The unique minimizer is therefore the Bayes estimator under squared error loss. Using the mean of the posterior Beta distribution gives
Under repeated sampling at parameter value , has the binomial distribution with expected value . Consequently
so its bias of an estimator is .

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