Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2019 / ib / Paper 2 / 8H / c / Solution

For any action $a$, decompose the posterior expected quadratic loss around the posterior mean:The unique minimizer is therefore the Bayes estimator under squared error loss. Using the mean of the posterior Beta distribution givesUnder repeated sampling at parameter value $\theta$, $S$ has the binomial distribution with expected value $n\theta$. Consequentlyso its bias of an estimator is $(1-2\theta )/(n+2)$.