Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2022/iii/paper-205/5/solution

For disjoint nonempty index sets and , partition the mean and covariance conformably. The conditional multivariate normal distribution is
If the sets overlap, the shared coordinates are fixed and this formula applies to .
Partition into the and blocks. The block-inverse formula identifies the displayed conditional covariance with
For , inversion of the two-by-two precision block gives
The denominator is positive, so the conditional covariance vanishes exactly when . A Gaussian pair is independent exactly when it is uncorrelated, proving
Profiling the Gaussian likelihood over gives . Apart from constants and a positive factor, the negative log-likelihood for the precision matrix is
Its derivative is , so the unpenalized minimizer is . The Graphical Lasso solves
with some conventions also penalizing the diagonal.

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