Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2024/iii/paper-201/6/c/solution

Put and . Before , the integer-valued increment belongs to . The martingale property gives
Their sum is at least , so each conditional probability is at least . From any state in , a run of at most upward moves reaches and has conditional probability at least . Applied in successive blocks of steps, this gives
so almost surely.
The stopped process takes values in , hence is a bounded martingale and has uniform integrability. The optional sampling theorem for a supermartingale gives
because is zero or . Therefore

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