Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-options-ii-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2011/m/m5/a/i/solution
Past exam of the options II course of the University of Oxford 2011 M M5 a i Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
Given , the number remaining next time is uniform on and is independent of earlier choices; given , the next state is . Thus the conditional law of depends only on , which is the Markov property.
By contrast, observing only the last number removed generally loses information about the remaining stock. For , compare the two positive-probability historiesBoth have , but the first leaves stickers, so , whereas the second leaves none, so . Hence fails the Markov property.
The qualification is necessary if a Markov chain is allowed to have time-dependent transitions. For , the removal sequence is the deterministic, time-homogeneous Markov chain . For , it is a time-inhomogeneous Markov chain, although it is not time-homogeneous on its observed removal states: a removal of at the first step forces another removal of , whereas a removal of at the second step forces next. The blanket non-Markov claim should therefore be understood in the generic, nondegenerate setting.
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