Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-options-ii-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2012/o/o5/a/solution

Independence and normality give . Consequently is standard normal, and
Rearranging the event gives . Thus the random interval covers the fixed parameter with probability . After observing the sample, its realized confidence interval is
The coverage refers to repeated samples, not to a posterior probability for the fixed parameter.

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