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ID: past-exam-of-the-options-ii-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2013/o5/b/solution
Past exam of the options II course of the University of Oxford 2013 O5 b Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
The unrestricted likelihood is maximized at the empirical proportions, while the null likelihood is maximized at . Twice the log of their ratio isLarge values mean the fitted null likelihood is much smaller than the unrestricted maximum, so rejection is in the upper tail.
For a regular identifiable scalar parameter lying in the interior, positive true cell probabilities, and sufficiently large expected counts, Wilks theorem gives an approximate chi-squared distribution with degrees of freedom under the null. The unrestricted probability vector has dimension and the fitted null has dimension one. At significance level , reject if , or report the approximate p-value .
Cells with very small expected counts may require a prespecified pooling scheme or simulation calibration; the asymptotic reference is not an exact finite-sample law. For a regular null with fitted parameters, the corresponding degrees of freedom are .
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