 Solution

A chi-squared test compares squared deviations with the size expected from the assumed random errors. For independent observations with a normal distribution $y_i$ with known standard deviations ${\sigma }_i$ and predictions ${\mu }_i(\theta )$, useFor a correct fixed model, the standardized independent residuals are unit-variance normal distributions, so $Q$ has a chi-squared distribution with $\nu =N$. Fitting $p$ independent linear parameters removes $p$ residual directions, giving $\nu =N-p$. This distribution is exact for a full-rank linear model with known errors with a normal distribution; it is an approximation for many nonlinear fits. With known correlated errors with a multivariate normal distribution, replace the sum by $Q={\mathbf{r}}^{\mathsf{T}}{\Sigma }^{-1}\mathbf{r}$, where $\Sigma$ is the covariance matrix and its rank and fitted constraints determine the available statistical degrees of freedom.

Under the null hypothesis, $\mathbb{E}Q=\nu$ and $\mathrm{Var}Q=2\nu$. The reduced statistic $Q/\nu$ should therefore be near one, with standard deviation $\sqrt{2/\nu }$, rather than equal to one exactly. An upper-tail p-value isCompare it with a significance threshold chosen in advance. A small value indicates tension with the model together with its error assumptions; it can arise from a wrong mean model, underestimated uncertainties or neglected correlations. An unusually small statistic can suggest overestimated uncertainties, correlations or overfitting. A p-value is not the probability that the model is true, and failure to reject is not proof of the model.

For counts in categories, the Pearson form is $Q={\sum }_{j=1}^k(O_j-E_j{)}^2/E_j$. Its chi-squared distribution is an asymptotic approximation requiring adequate expected counts. For a fixed-total multinomial sample there is one normalization constraint, so the usual statistical degrees of freedom are $k-1-p$ after fitting $p$ other parameters. Independent Poisson bins instead start with $k$ statistical degrees of freedom before parameters are fitted. Sparse counts require an appropriate count likelihood or a calibrated exact or simulation-based test; plugging tiny expected counts into the asymptotic formula is unreliable. The error model, binning, fitted parameters and chosen test must therefore be reported with the result.