Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-physics-of-atmospheres-and-oceans-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2019/6/d/solution

Use the standard Earth radius and rotation rate . At S,
Take a predominantly zonal wave train, , and the gravest baroclinic mode from part (c). Then
The background current is westward, so . The pulse uses the baroclinic Rossby-wave group velocity, not the crest speed:
Therefore
For comparison would give about years, but that is a crest transit time and not the requested pulse delay.
The approximately three-year group delay is comparable to the stated three-to-five-year El Niño–Southern Oscillation period. Wind-driven thermocline disturbances can store and convey oceanic adjustment westward; interaction with the western boundary and subsequent faster signals can contribute a delayed feedback on the tropical coupled system. This calculation supports a relevant time scale, not a complete ENSO oscillator: realistic meridional structure, variable stratification and currents, damping, boundary conversion and equatorial coupling are omitted. A nonzero unspecified meridional wavenumber would also change the numerical group speed, so the assumption is material.

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