Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-probability-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2014/3/a/ii/solution

The first Markov chain is a finite irreducible Markov chain: its positive-probability directed cycle reaches all four states. The self-loop at state 1 makes it an aperiodic Markov chain. Convergence to an invariant distribution therefore gives
The second chain alternates between the sets and . It is a periodic Markov chain with period two, so . From either state 2 or state 4 the next-step probability of entering state 1 is . Therefore for every . The subsequences have different limits, so the second return-probability sequence does not converge.

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