Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-probability-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2023/3/a/iii/solution

For the countable-state Markov chain ergodic theorem, let the Markov chain be irreducible and positive recurrent, with its unique stationary distribution . From any initial state, for every real satisfying ,
In particular, almost surely. This time-average conclusion requires no aperiodicity.
The countable-state Markov chain convergence theorem adds the hypothesis of an aperiodic Markov chain and concludes
It also follows that for every initial probability distribution . For an irreducible recurrent chain, the occupation-frequency theorem can also be stated as a limit , interpreted as zero for a null recurrent state; in the positive recurrent case this equals .

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