Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-probability-measure-and-martingales-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2021/3/b/ii/solution

For each ,
since is adapted. This verifies directly that is a stopping time.
Set . On , the random walk is at some integer strictly between and . If its next steps are all , it must hit within that block. These future steps are independent of and have probability of being all . Hence
The law of total expectation and mathematical induction give the geometric tail bound from a uniform escape probability:
Therefore . In fact this also proves by grouping the tail-sum formula into blocks of length . No assertion of independence between successive survival events is needed.

New to topics? Read the docs here!