Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-probability-measure-and-martingales-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2021/3/b/ii/solution
Past exam of the probability, measure and martingales course of the University of Oxford 2021 3 b ii Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-25
Set . On , the random walk is at some integer strictly between and . If its next steps are all , it must hit within that block. These future steps are independent of and have probability of being all . HenceThe law of total expectation and mathematical induction give the geometric tail bound from a uniform escape probability:Therefore . In fact this also proves by grouping the tail-sum formula into blocks of length . No assertion of independence between successive survival events is needed.
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