Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-probability-measure-and-martingales-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2023/3/b/i/solution

Assume is square-integrable. Since and have the same probability distribution, is also square-integrable and . The product is integrable by the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality.
We use the defining test-function identity for conditional expectation: for bounded -measurable , . Take and let . The dominated convergence theorem, with bounds and , gives
This is the extension of the conditional expectation pull-out identity to this square-integrable multiplier. Consequently
A nonnegative random variable with zero expectation is zero almost surely. Hence
Geometrically, this is the equality case in the L2 space orthogonal projection interpretation of conditional expectation.

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