Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-probability-statistics-and-options-i-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2007/m/2/solution

An absorbing state has ; once reached, the chain never leaves it. For a nonabsorbing initial state, condition on its first transition and use the Markov property:
Here and . The other equations are
Solving gives
For absorption into either state one or four, let be the expected number of steps, with . first-step analysis gives
Hence and
The expectation is finite because each transient two-step cycle has probability at most of remaining transient; the survival tail is geometrically bounded. This also justifies solving the expectation equations without assuming finiteness in advance.

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