Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-probability-statistics-and-options-ii-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2011/m/m5/a/i/solution
Past exam of the Probability, statistics and options II course of the University of Oxford 2011 M M5 a i Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
Given , the next child takes a fresh uniform choice from , making uniform on . At zero the count stays zero. This conditional law depends only on the current count, so is a Markov chain.
The amounts taken do not generally retain that state information. For , compare two positive-probability histories with the same current value : if , exactly one sticker remains and ; if , none remains and . Thus the next amount depends on earlier history even after conditioning on the current amount, violating the Markov property.
The non-Markov assertion needs this nondegenerate range of . With the amount process is trivial; for it is also Markov if time-inhomogeneous transitions are permitted. The history counterexample establishes the intended failure for every .
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