Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-statistics-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2015/2/a/solution

Let be the likelihood function, with full parameter space and null hypothesis . The generalized likelihood-ratio test compares the best null fit to the best unrestricted fit:
The likelihood ratio lies between zero and one, and small values count against the null hypothesis; equivalently, large values of the likelihood-ratio test statistic count against it.
Compute restricted and unrestricted maximum-likelihood estimates, evaluate their log-likelihoods, and form . Under the regular conditions of Wilks theorem, the null limit is
These statistical degrees of freedom count independent parameter restrictions. The regularity includes a locally identifiable smooth model, nonsingular Fisher information, and an interior null value; parameter-dependent support can invalidate the result.
For a chosen significance level , obtain the quantile of the chi-squared distribution and use
Equivalently, compare the asymptotic p-value to . This is a large-sample calibration; part (c) requires direct treatment because its support depends on a parameter.

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