Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-statistics-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2023/3/c/solution

Let . The continuous uniform distribution likelihood contributes , while the Pareto distribution prior contributes . Their product proves Uniform-Pareto conjugacy:
Thus the posterior distribution is Pareto with shape and lower bound . Its density is strictly decreasing on its support, so the highest posterior density interval begins at . Since the upper-tail probability is , the required upper endpoint satisfies . The Pareto highest density interval is therefore

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