Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-year-1-of-the-computer-science-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2003/calculus-probability-linear-algebra-discrete-mathematics-logic-and-proof-and-models-of-computation/5/b/i/solution

Let be the event that wins, and the event that his first toss is a tail. For a nontrivial starting state , a first tail has probability and changes his holding to . By the chain rule for probabilities,
Since , the definition of conditional probability gives
In particular, when , losing the first coin would end the game in defeat, so the conditional answer is zero. At conditioning on victory is undefined, while at the game has already ended and no first toss occurs.

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