Survival among independently moving Poisson traps

ID: survival-among-independently-moving-poisson-traps

Start traps at a unit-intensity Poisson random measure in Euclidean space and attach mutually independent Brownian motions, independent of the initial measure. For a deterministic target path , independently thin initial positions according to whether their marked path comes within radius one of the target by time . The retention probability integrates, by the Tonelli theorem, to the expected volume of the sausage along . Symmetry of Brownian motion makes this the expected volume of the sausage along . The Poisson zero-count probability proves the displayed survival formula. This derives the formula directly from independent thinning, without assuming a separate marking or displacement theorem.

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