For a submartingale and , let count the completed upcrossings of by time . The Doob upcrossing inequality gives
For a martingale , a useful sharper form is
Here and . To see the martingale form, use a bounded predictable process that holds one unit after an observation at or below and releases it on the next observation at or above . Its gain is at least : completed trades earn at least , and any unfinished trade loses at most . Since , the bound follows. For the submartingale version, apply the same strategy to , itself a submartingale. Each purchase occurs at value zero, so its gain is at least . The complementary predictable strategy has nonnegative expected gain, bounding this strategy's expected gain by , and in particular by the stated right side.
The almost-sure martingale convergence theorem says that if , then converges almost surely to a finite, integrable random variable , with . Indeed, the Doob upcrossing inequality bounds the expected total number of upcrossings of every rational interval by . By monotone convergence, each such total count is finite almost surely; intersect these probability-one events over all rational . If the lower and upper limits of a sample path differed, some rational interval strictly between them would be crossed infinitely often. Thus each remaining path has a limit in the extended real line. The Fatou lemma gives
so the limit is finite almost surely and integrable. Almost-sure convergence by itself neither preserves expectations nor supplies this uniform first-moment bound.
For the loss of expectation, let be independent variables with the fair Bernoulli distribution and set
Conditional on the past, survival doubles the value with probability and otherwise sets it to zero, so this is a nonnegative martingale. An infinite string of successes has probability zero. The process therefore eventually vanishes almost surely, giving yes: and almost surely are possible. Its expectations remain one at every finite time; the process is not uniformly integrable.
A nonintegrable limit is also possible for a signed martingale. Take independent with
and let , . Every increment has mean zero and a finite absolute expectation, so each is integrable and is a martingale. Since , the Borel-Cantelli lemma makes only finitely many increments nonzero almost surely; hence the finite limit exists almost surely. To compute its absolute expectation, let be the event that only the th increment is nonzero. Independence gives
The infinite product is positive because its tail logarithms are bounded in absolute value by a constant times the summable series . The events are disjoint, and on , . Therefore
Thus yes: a finite almost-sure martingale limit can have infinite absolute expectation, even with deterministic . This is almost-sure martingale convergence to a nonintegrable limit; the missing hypothesis is the uniform first-moment bound. For a nonnegative martingale, in contrast, the Fatou lemma would force the limit to be integrable.