A convenient precise version is the almost sure submartingale convergence theorem: if is a real submartingale and , then converges almost surely to a finite integrable random variable. In particular the martingale convergence theorem applies to any martingale with . It asserts neither convergence in L1 nor preservation of the initial expected value without additional uniform integrability.
Here is a proof including the crossing estimate. Fix real , and let count completed upcrossings by time . Use a predictable indicator which holds one unit during each crossing attempt: enter when , exit when . With
each completed trade gains at least , while the possible unfinished trade loses no more than . Hence . The submartingale property and give : the complementary predictable gains have nonnegative expected value. Therefore
The right side is uniformly bounded, since . By the monotone convergence theorem, every rational interval has finitely many upcrossings almost surely. A real sequence whose lower and upper limits differ crosses some rational interval infinitely often, so the countable intersection of these events gives an extended-real limit. Furthermore
so . The Fatou lemma makes the limit finite and integrable, completing the proof. Applying this theorem to gives the almost sure supermartingale convergence theorem for nonnegative supermartingales.
For the given adapted multiplicative drift, put
The next denominator is -measurable, and makes integrable. Thus
The nonnegative supermartingale has a finite almost sure convergence limit . On the probability-one event where the specified series is finite,
Consequently and the multiplicative correction for summable adapted drift gives
The argument does not require a finite expected value for the infinite product or for the total drift.
The almost sure submartingale convergence theorem states that a discrete-time submartingale satisfying converges almost surely to a finite integrable limit. In particular, a martingale with converges almost surely to an integrable , and by Fatou's lemma. This is the martingale convergence theorem. Uniform integrability gives the stronger conclusion of L1 convergence; it is not implied by bounded first moments alone.
A filtration on a probability space is an increasing sequence of sigma-algebras contained in : . A real stochastic process is a martingale for this filtration if is -measurable, , and
The first condition is adaptedness; the tower property of conditional expectation then gives whenever .
The almost-sure martingale convergence theorem states that if a real martingale satisfies , then some integrable random variable satisfies almost surely. The more general almost sure submartingale convergence theorem needs only for a submartingale. In particular, a nonnegative martingale converges to a finite integrable limit almost surely, because its expected value is constant. Mere boundedness in the L1 norm does not imply convergence in L1. The stronger uniformly integrable martingale convergence theorem gives both almost-sure convergence and convergence in L1 when the martingale is uniformly integrable.
The martingale convergence theorem says that a discrete-time martingale satisfying
has an almost sure convergence limit , finite almost surely and in . The theorem asserts that the limit is integrable; it does not assert convergence in L1. More generally, the almost sure submartingale convergence theorem applies to a submartingale with . Uniform integrability is the additional condition that upgrades a martingale's convergence to convergence in L1.
For the requested distinction, let be independent fair Bernoulli variables and use their natural filtration. The coin-doubling martingale
is a nonnegative martingale: conditionally on , the next factor is with mean one, so . Also for every , giving the required uniform bound. The probability that all the Bernoulli variables equal one is . Therefore a zero is eventually encountered almost surely, after which stays zero. Thus
There can be no other limit, since convergence in L1 implies convergence in probability, whose limit must agree with the almost sure limit. This martingale satisfies the almost sure theorem but does not converge in .
The almost sure submartingale convergence theorem says that if a submartingale satisfies
then there is an integrable random variable such that
Indeed the positive-part bound also bounds the negative parts, since ; the theorem gives a finite limit. In particular, the martingale convergence theorem applies to any martingale with .
For a nonnegative martingale, supplies this bound automatically. Its limit obeys by the Fatou lemma. Almost sure convergence alone need not preserve the expectation or give convergence in L1. Uniform integrability is the additional condition that supplies convergence in L1 and the identity .